How Many?

Survival in an Urban Environment

How Many?

Postby UnderDude » Sun Oct 26, 2014 12:20 am

What's your opinion? Here's the setup.....

It's been two weeks into what appears to be a worldwide zombie outbreak. You're in a suburb city of around 40,000 people about 30-40 miles from a highly populated metropolitan area. The power is out, no water, no social services, the only other people you've seen are in cars speeding through town (presumably on their way out), and the only info you've been getting is from a battery powered radio you have (Scattered accounts of what's happening in areas a good distance from you). Assuming 10-20% of the population of the town didn't turn or die, how many Zeds do you think there would be left at this point and why?
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Re: How Many?

Postby SoB » Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:34 am

20 to 30 thousand. I don't think they would of moved on yet and I would plan has if they did not.
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Re: How Many?

Postby mission_survivor » Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:55 am

32,000 - 36,000 are infected, with 4,000 - 8,000 not infected in the suburb is the estimated starting numbers. In any disaster scenario there would be barriers to action; so not all of the survivors would be able to fight off the undead threat. Psychological inability (fear) would be the greatest barrier to over come. Physical inability might be re-programmable at a skill level, depending on the nature of the impairment. Moral/Ethical conflict is a choice that may not be adjustable.

Other factors to consider are the suburbs general demographics: how many own guns, average age, physical abilities, and over-all preparedness. From the initial numbers of uninfected, there is a drop off from those that have evacuated vs the number of infected by secondary transmission. Now, add in those fleeing the metro area, potentially causing more undead and adding to the chaos. Two weeks into the apocalypse resources are dwindling; causing the uninfected to forage in direct competition for resources with other survivors. Which brings on the other problem of "ever man for himself" or survival mode. A high number of deaths caused by human to human violence, which may or may not increase the population of zombies.

These factors would lead me to believe, that the number of zombies would stay close to the original numbers 30k -34K, while the survivors total would drop off drastically to less than 1,000-3,000.
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Re: How Many?

Postby zbuddy » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:24 pm

That close to a metropolitan area, I would raise the bar to about 300k, if not more, walkers. If you want more practical evidence, go to the local gas station when the power is out, or just drive when it is raining heavily. On average, we're a pretty stupid species. If you remove the welfare/guaranteed livelihood of a large segment of a population, zombies or otherwise, get ready for a shit storm.
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Re: How Many?

Postby ConSeannery » Sun Oct 26, 2014 10:12 pm

Probably too many. I'd more than likely wait until a few days after the last car sped by, then get the hell out of dodge over gravel roads. Assuming you have those. I live in a very rural area, so I don't really think about the massive number of infected I'd have to deal with, just how to avoid major roads on my 150 mile drive from college to home.

I'd say you could probably count on 25K though, assuming there isn't some mass exodus from the local supercity in your direction. If there is, you'd better hope to be long gone by then.
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Re: How Many?

Postby Mrknot » Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:43 pm

SoB wrote:20 to 30 thousand. I don't think they would of moved on yet and I would plan has if they did not.

I think SOBs got it about right.
At this point, given your scenario, many Zs would have been killed, but also, quite a few people would have been turned. About a wash as far as that goes.
In the 2 week time frame, there would have been enough "action" in your suburb to keep them occupied and interested, so they probably wouldn't have moved on yet.
If you have a fortified and QUIETLY defensible position, lay low. Don't attract attention. They'll (mostly) move on in a couple more weeks and migrate to more populated, (read loud and active), places.
After that, all bets are off and...who knows...make your way to Serenity? Or stay put and stay vigilant.
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Re: How Many?

Postby UnderDude » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:53 am

I'd try our bugout spots first. If a no-go, what the hell.....Why not try a cross country trek?
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Re: How Many?

Postby SoB » Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:57 am

Depening on your resources. Either Bugg out fast, before the rush. Or Bugg in and wait it out. Getting caught out sid during the chaos is a bad idea.
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Re: How Many?

Postby Red Star » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:58 am

Having a place that is easy to defend or hide in makes better sense at times, especially if you are well stocked. After everybody or everything blows through, a little recon on the sly can let you get your bearings and proceed with your next move a little easier.

In theory that is...
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Re: How Many?

Postby Bob » Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:58 am

I am going to head for Serenity.
If I don't make it so be it.
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